1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.74
xG Away
0.97
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Thun an expected 1.7 goals and FC Lugano an expected 1.0 goals. FC Thun have a 55% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and FC Lugano at 21%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.6%
1:1
11.2%
2:0
10.1%
2:1
9.8%
0:0
6.7%
0:1
6.5%
3:0
5.8%
3:1
5.7%
1:2
5.4%
2:2
4.7%
0:2
3.1%
3:2
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Thun Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| FC Thun | FC Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 74 | Points | 57 |
| 73% | Win % | 48% |
| 2.27 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.52 |
| 1.12 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.15 |
Venue Form
FC Thun at Home
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
FC Lugano Away
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
FC Thun
L
L
L
FC Lugano
W
W
