1
51%
Home Win
1.98
X
26%
Draw
3.87
2
24%
Away Win
4.24
xG Home
1.52
xG Away
0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.5 goals and West Brom an expected 1.0 goals. Derby have a 51% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and West Brom at 24%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.8%
1:1
12.2%
2:0
9.8%
2:1
9.3%
0:0
8.4%
0:1
8%
1:2
5.8%
3:0
5%
3:1
4.7%
2:2
4.4%
0:2
3.8%
3:2
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 51% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.96 |
| Market Odds | 2.09 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 21 |
| 69 | Points | 51 |
| 43% | Win % | 28% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.04 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.26 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
West Brom Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
W
West Brom
L
W
D
