1
45%
Home Win
2.22
X
26%
Draw
3.86
2
29%
Away Win
3.44
xG Home
1.47
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Derby an expected 1.5 goals and Birmingham an expected 1.1 goals. Derby have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Birmingham at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.3%
1:0
10.9%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.4%
2:0
8%
0:0
7.4%
1:2
7%
2:2
5.1%
0:2
4.7%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Derby Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Derby | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 10 |
| 69 | Points | 64 |
| 43% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.46 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Derby at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Birmingham Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Derby
L
L
W
Birmingham
L
D
D
