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Benfica vs Alverca — Prediction

Benfica Benfica
2 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Mon, 02 Nov 2026 · Primeira Liga
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Alverca Alverca

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC
Competition
Primeira Liga
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Benfica
  • Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica
  • FC Porto 3–1 Benfica
  • AC Milan 0–2 Benfica
  • Benfica 1–1 GIL Vicente
  • Moreirense 0–4 Benfica
Alverca
  • Alverca 0–1 Arouca
  • Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave FC
  • Nacional 1–3 Alverca
  • Alverca 1–2 SC Braga
  • Famalicao 1–0 Alverca
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Benfica 34 · Alverca 34. Data saved: 2026-11-02 00:00 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Benfica 70% · 2026-11-02 02:30 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 83%
Home Win 1.21
X 12%
Draw 8.27
2 5%
Away Win 19.92
Model goal expectation · 1 2.68
Model goal expectation · 2 0.52
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
BTTS 38%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Benfica 2.68 · Alverca 0.52.
1 83% · X 12% · 2 5%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 14.6%
3:0 13%
1:0 10.9%
4:0 8.7%
2:1 7.6%
3:1 6.8%
1:1 5.7%
4:1 4.6%
0:0 4.1%
0:1 2.1%
2:2 2%
3:2 1.8%

About this assessment

Model outcome Benfica Win
Probability 83%
Predicted Odds 1.2

Team Comparison

Benfica Alverca
3 League Position 11
80 Points 39
68% Win % 29%
2.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53

Venue Form

Benfica at Home
W0 D1 L0 (1 games)
0% win rate
Alverca Away
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Benfica
W L W D W
Alverca
L W W L L

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