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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — Prediction

Ajax Ajax
1 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · Eredivisie
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Competition
Eredivisie
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Ajax
  • Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax
  • Ajax 2–2 Excelsior
  • Ajax 5–1 Willem II
  • Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax
  • Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar
  • AZ Alkmaar 0–2 FC Twente
  • AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Telstar
  • Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar
  • AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem II
  • Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Ajax 34 · AZ Alkmaar 34. Data saved: 2026-10-31 01:10 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Ajax 49% · 2026-10-31 01:01 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 53%
Home Win 1.89
X 23%
Draw 4.41
2 25%
Away Win 4.08
Model goal expectation · 1 1.86
Model goal expectation · 2 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
BTTS 59%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Ajax 1.86 · AZ Alkmaar 1.20.
1 53% · X 23% · 2 25%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 10.5%
2:1 9.7%
1:0 8.7%
2:0 8.1%
1:2 6.3%
3:1 6%
2:2 5.8%
0:1 5.6%
3:0 5%
0:0 4.7%
3:2 3.6%
0:2 3.4%

About this assessment

Model outcome Ajax Win
Probability 53%
Predicted Odds 1.89

Team Comparison

Ajax AZ Alkmaar
5 League Position 7
56 Points 52
41% Win % 41%
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5

Venue Form

Ajax at Home
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate
AZ Alkmaar Away
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Ajax
W D W W L
AZ Alkmaar
L W L D W

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