Mats Hummels has delivered a stark warning about Borussia Dortmund's prospects in the new Champions League league phase, predicting the Bundesliga side will fail to secure direct qualification for the knockout round. The veteran defender flatly stated he does not believe BVB can finish in the top eight, contradicting former World Cup-winning teammate Christoph Kramer, who backed the club to advance automatically.
Speaking before Dortmund's home clash against Villarreal on Prime Video, Hummels outlined his concerns. "I fear BVB are not top eight," he said. "If you say it needs that surprise win, I fear it is more likely to be that one surprise draw you had not planned for. I do not see them among the first eight." His pessimism stands in sharp contrast to Kramer's optimism that Dortmund will navigate the expanded format successfully.
Understanding the New Champions League Format
The revamped league phase represents a significant structural change, with 36 teams competing in a single standings rather than traditional group divisions. Each club faces eight opponents drawn from different strength categories, with the top eight advancing directly to the Round of 16. Teams finishing ninth through 24th must contest a playoff over two legs for the remaining eight spots, while the bottom 12 are eliminated entirely. This format has now run for three seasons.
Dortmund's recent history in this system offers little encouragement. The Black and Yellows previously finished 10th and 17th in earlier editions, forcing playoff appearances both times. While they progressed once, last season's exit against Atalanta Bergamo demonstrated how cruel the secondary bracket can be.
Dortmund's Remaining Fixture List
Following the Villarreal encounter, Dortmund face seven more league-phase matches against FK Bodö/Glimt, Sabah FK, Real Betis, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Aston Villa, and AEK Athens. The fixture list includes elite opponents alongside more modest competition, making the path to top-eight qualification genuinely uncertain. Hummels' assessment suggests even wins against weaker sides may not suffice given the caliber of their stronger opponents. The next weeks will test whether Kramer's confidence or Hummels' caution proves justified as the tournament enters its decisive phase.
