Kylian Mbappe's hopes of winning the Ballon d'Or in 2026 have suffered a significant blow following France's World Cup semi-final exit against Spain. The Real Madrid forward, who netted eight goals during Les Bleus' run to North America, will now face a 12-month wait before launching another bid for individual football's most prestigious honour.
Former France international Jeremie Aliadiere believes Mbappe's lack of silverware at both club and international level this year makes him an outsider for the award. Despite scoring prolifically for Real Madrid during the 2025-26 campaign, the Spanish giants failed to secure major trophies, which typically proves decisive in Ballon d'Or voting. The 28-year-old has never won the award throughout his career, and the combination of Madrid's trophy drought and France's World Cup disappointment has effectively removed him from contention.
Messi Emerges as Clear Favourite
Lionel Messi, meanwhile, has positioned himself as the frontrunner for a ninth Golden Ball. The 39-year-old Argentine maestro has guided his nation to the World Cup final in 2026, adding eight goals of his own to his tournament tally. Aliadiere suggests that if Messi delivers another commanding display in the final, the award becomes his to lose—regardless of his age or current status in Major League Soccer with Inter Miami.
The contrast in their trajectories underscores a fundamental rule of modern Ballon d'Or voting: individual brilliance alone cannot compete with collective success at the highest level. History demonstrates this pattern clearly—since 2008, only players who have captured Champions League, World Cup, or continental titles have claimed the award. Mbappe's 32-goal season in La Liga would normally command serious consideration, yet his empty trophy cabinet disqualifies him from serious contention.
Kleberson, a former World Cup winner, has previously stated that Messi's chances of extending his record remain exceptional if Argentina claims the 2026 World Cup. The Brazilian legend highlighted the quality of Argentina's squad around Messi as a decisive factor, suggesting the forward's supporting cast gives him a structural advantage over competitors. With England already eliminated and Spain facing elimination, Messi's path to a historic tenth Ballon d'Or award grows clearer with each passing knockout round.
For Mbappe, the 2026-27 season represents a crucial reset. Unless Real Madrid reclaims European and domestic dominance while France mounts a serious Copa America challenge, his wait for a maiden Ballon d'Or will extend into the 2027 awards cycle.
