1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
2.01
xG Away
1.39
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS
65%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Galatasaray an expected 2.0 goals and Fenerbahce an expected 1.4 goals. Galatasaray have a 52% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Fenerbahce at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 66%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:1
9.4%
1:1
9.3%
2:0
6.7%
1:0
6.7%
2:2
6.5%
1:2
6.5%
3:1
6.3%
0:1
4.7%
3:0
4.5%
3:2
4.4%
0:0
3.3%
0:2
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Galatasaray Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 77 | Points | 74 |
| 71% | Win % | 62% |
| 2.26 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.26 |
| 0.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
Venue Form
Galatasaray at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Fenerbahce Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Galatasaray
W
W
W
Fenerbahce
D
W
L
W
