1
16%
Home Win
6.08
X
27%
Draw
3.74
2
57%
Away Win
1.76
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS
36%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vitoria an expected 0.6 goals and Cruzeiro an expected 1.5 goals. Vitoria have a 16% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Cruzeiro at 57%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
17.9%
0:2
13%
0:0
12.3%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
8.3%
1:0
7.9%
0:3
6.3%
1:3
4%
2:1
3.7%
2:2
2.7%
2:0
2.5%
0:4
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Cruzeiro Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 57% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.75 |
| Market Odds | 1.87 |
Team Comparison
| Vitoria | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 3 |
| 45 | Points | 70 |
| 29% | Win % | 50% |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.82 |
Venue Form
Vitoria at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Cruzeiro Away
W4
D0
L0
(4 games)
Recent Form
Vitoria
W
W
D
Cruzeiro
W
W
W
W
