1
27%
Home Win
3.71
X
28%
Draw
3.58
2
45%
Away Win
2.22
xG Home
0.95
xG Away
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vitoria an expected 1.0 goals and Bahia an expected 1.3 goals. Vitoria have a 27% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Bahia at 45%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.6%
1:1
13%
0:0
10.3%
1:0
9.8%
0:2
9%
1:2
8.6%
2:1
6.2%
2:0
4.7%
2:2
4.1%
0:3
3.9%
1:3
3.8%
3:1
2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Bahia Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Vitoria | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 7 |
| 45 | Points | 60 |
| 29% | Win % | 45% |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Vitoria at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Bahia Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Vitoria
W
D
Bahia
D
L