1
44%
Home Win
2.29
X
24%
Draw
4.15
2
32%
Away Win
3.1
xG Home
1.63
xG Away
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.6 goals and Santos an expected 1.4 goals. Vasco DA Gama have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Santos at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.1%
2:1
9.1%
1:0
8.1%
1:2
7.6%
0:1
6.8%
2:0
6.6%
2:2
6.2%
0:0
5%
3:1
4.9%
0:2
4.7%
3:0
3.6%
1:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Vasco DA Gama Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Vasco DA Gama | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 12 |
| 45 | Points | 47 |
| 34% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Santos Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama
L
W
W
L
Santos
D
D
W
