USA vs Mexico Prediction

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USA USA
1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sun, 06 Jul 2025 · CONCACAF Gold Cup
1 62%
Home Win 1.61
X 28%
Draw 3.58
2 10%
Away Win 10.18
xG Home 1.36
xG Away 0.36
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
BTTS 23%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives USA an expected 1.4 goals and Mexico an expected 0.4 goals. USA have a 62% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Mexico at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 75%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 24.3%
0:0 17.9%
2:0 16.5%
1:1 8.8%
3:0 7.4%
0:1 6.5%
2:1 6%
3:1 2.7%
4:0 2.5%
1:2 1.6%
0:2 1.2%
2:2 1.1%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick USA Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

USA Mexico
1 League Position 1
9 Points 7
100% Win % 67%
2.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67

Head to Head

16 Oct 2024 Friendlies
Mexico 2 : 0 USA
L
25 Mar 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Mexico 0 : 2 USA
W
16 Jun 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
USA 3 : 0 Mexico
W