1
62%
Home Win
1.61
X
28%
Draw
3.58
2
10%
Away Win
10.18
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
0.36
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
BTTS
23%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives USA an expected 1.4 goals and Mexico an expected 0.4 goals. USA have a 62% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Mexico at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 75%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
24.3%
0:0
17.9%
2:0
16.5%
1:1
8.8%
3:0
7.4%
0:1
6.5%
2:1
6%
3:1
2.7%
4:0
2.5%
1:2
1.6%
0:2
1.2%
2:2
1.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | USA Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| USA | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 1 |
| 9 | Points | 7 |
| 100% | Win % | 67% |
| 2.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |
Head to Head
Mexico
2 : 0
USA
L
Mexico
0 : 2
USA
W
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
W