1
4%
Home Win
26.53
X
6%
Draw
17.51
2
85%
Away Win
1.17
xG Home
1.19
xG Away
4.77
Over 2.5 Goals
88%
BTTS
65%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Uganda an expected 1.2 goals and Nigeria an expected 4.8 goals. Uganda have a 4% win probability, draw stands at 6%, and Nigeria at 85%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–4. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 88%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:4
6.6%
0:4
5.6%
1:3
5.6%
0:3
4.7%
2:4
3.9%
1:2
3.5%
2:3
3.3%
0:2
2.9%
2:2
2.1%
3:4
1.6%
1:1
1.5%
3:3
1.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nigeria Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Uganda | Nigeria | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 1 |
| 1 | Points | 9 |
| 0% | Win % | 100% |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.67 |
| 2.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |
Head to Head
Nigeria
0 : 0
Uganda
D