1
39%
Home Win
2.57
X
28%
Draw
3.54
2
33%
Away Win
3.04
xG Home
1.21
xG Away
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives TSV Hartberg an expected 1.2 goals and Sturm Graz an expected 1.1 goals. TSV Hartberg have a 39% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Sturm Graz at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.2%
1:0
12.1%
0:1
10.9%
0:0
10%
2:1
8%
2:0
7.3%
1:2
7.2%
0:2
5.9%
2:2
4.4%
3:1
3.2%
3:0
3%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | TSV Hartberg Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| TSV Hartberg | Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 1 |
| 33 | Points | 38 |
| 36% | Win % | 55% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.5 |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.18 |
