1
25%
Home Win
4
X
40%
Draw
2.5
2
35%
Away Win
2.86
xG Home
0.56
xG Away
0.72
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS
22%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Tajikistan an expected 0.6 goals and Lebanon an expected 0.7 goals. Tajikistan have a 25% win probability, draw stands at 40%, and Lebanon at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 86%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
27.6%
0:1
20%
1:0
15.5%
1:1
11.2%
0:2
7.2%
2:0
4.4%
1:2
4.1%
2:1
3.2%
0:3
1.7%
2:2
1.1%
1:3
1%
3:0
0.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Tajikistan Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Tajikistan | Lebanon | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 14 | Points | 13 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 2.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.33 |
| 0.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.33 |
