St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United Prediction

1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 · Major League Soccer
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Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.08
xG Away 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
BTTS 54%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives St. Louis City SC an expected 1.1 goals and Minnesota United an expected 1.7 goals. St. Louis City SC have a 23% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Minnesota United at 53%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 11.2%
0:1 10.4%
1:2 9.8%
0:2 9.1%
1:0 6.4%
2:1 6%
0:0 6%
1:3 5.7%
0:3 5.3%
2:2 5.2%
2:0 3.4%
2:3 3.1%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Minnesota United Win
Probability 53%
Predicted Odds 1.89
Market Odds 2.01

Team Comparison

St. Louis City SC Minnesota United
13 League Position 4
32 Points 58
24% Win % 47%
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15

Venue Form

St. Louis City SC at Home
W4 D0 L1 (5 games)
80% win rate
Minnesota United Away
W2 D1 L4 (7 games)
29% win rate

Recent Form

St. Louis City SC
W W W W L
Minnesota United
D L L L W