Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United Prediction

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1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Thu, 23 Jul 2026 · Major League Soccer
1 47%
Home Win 2.12
X 24%
Draw 4.09
2 28%
Away Win 3.53
xG Home 1.63
xG Away 1.21
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
BTTS 56%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Sporting Kansas City an expected 1.6 goals and Minnesota United an expected 1.2 goals. Sporting Kansas City have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Minnesota United at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 11.5%
1:0 9.5%
2:1 9.4%
2:0 7.8%
0:1 7.1%
1:2 7%
0:0 5.9%
2:2 5.7%
3:1 5.1%
0:2 4.3%
3:0 4.2%
3:2 3.1%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Minnesota United Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Venue Form

Sporting Kansas City at Home
W2 D1 L0 (3 games)
67% win rate
Minnesota United Away
W2 D0 L1 (3 games)
67% win rate

Recent Form

Sporting Kansas City
W D W
Minnesota United
W W L

Head to Head

07 Feb 2026 Friendlies Clubs
Sporting Kansas City 0 : 3 Minnesota United FC
W
05 Oct 2025 Major League Soccer
Minnesota United FC 3 : 0 Sporting Kansas City
L
16 Mar 2025 Major League Soccer
Sporting Kansas City 3 : 3 Minnesota United FC
D