1
79%
Home Win
1.27
X
17%
Draw
5.92
2
5%
Away Win
21.88
xG Home
2.01
xG Away
0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
22%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Spain an expected 2.0 goals and Saudi Arabia an expected 0.3 goals. Spain have a 79% win probability, draw stands at 17%, and Saudi Arabia at 5%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
20.1%
1:0
20%
3:0
13.4%
0:0
9.9%
4:0
6.7%
2:1
6%
1:1
6%
3:1
4%
0:1
3%
4:1
2%
2:2
0.9%
1:2
0.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Spain Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Spain | Saudi Arabia | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 2 |
| 67% | Win % | 0% |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.33 |
| 0 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.67 |