Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sat, 05 Jul 2025 · FIFA Club World Cup
1 61%
Home Win 1.63
X 24%
Draw 4.21
2 15%
Away Win 6.71
xG Home 1.68
xG Away 0.69
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
BTTS 40%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Real Madrid an expected 1.7 goals and Borussia Dortmund an expected 0.7 goals. Real Madrid have a 61% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Borussia Dortmund at 15%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 15.8%
2:0 13.2%
1:1 10.8%
0:0 9.4%
2:1 9.1%
3:0 7.4%
0:1 6.4%
3:1 5.1%
1:2 3.7%
2:2 3.1%
4:0 3.1%
0:2 2.2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Real Madrid Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Real Madrid Borussia Dortmund
1 League Position 1
7 Points 7
67% Win % 67%
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Head to Head

22 Oct 2024 UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 5 : 2 Borussia Dortmund
W
01 Jun 2024 UEFA Champions League
Borussia Dortmund 0 : 2 Real Madrid
W
06 Dec 2017 UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 3 : 2 Borussia Dortmund
W