1
61%
Home Win
1.63
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
15%
Away Win
6.71
xG Home
1.68
xG Away
0.69
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Real Madrid an expected 1.7 goals and Borussia Dortmund an expected 0.7 goals. Real Madrid have a 61% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Borussia Dortmund at 15%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
15.8%
2:0
13.2%
1:1
10.8%
0:0
9.4%
2:1
9.1%
3:0
7.4%
0:1
6.4%
3:1
5.1%
1:2
3.7%
2:2
3.1%
4:0
3.1%
0:2
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Real Madrid | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 1 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 2.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Head to Head
Real Madrid
5 : 2
Borussia Dortmund
W
Borussia Dortmund
0 : 2
Real Madrid
W
Real Madrid
3 : 2
Borussia Dortmund
W