Poland vs Romania Prediction

1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 02 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.26
xG Away 0.93
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
BTTS 43%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Poland an expected 1.3 goals and Romania an expected 0.9 goals. Poland have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Romania at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 14.1%
1:1 13.1%
0:0 11.2%
0:1 10.4%
2:0 8.9%
2:1 8.3%
1:2 6.1%
0:2 4.9%
2:2 3.9%
3:0 3.7%
3:1 3.5%
1:3 1.9%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Poland Win
Probability 50%
Predicted Odds 2
Market Odds 2.13

Head to Head

10 Jun 2017 World Cup - Qualification Europe
Poland 3 : 1 Romania
W
11 Nov 2016 World Cup - Qualification Europe
Romania 0 : 3 Poland
W