1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
0.97
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Peñarol Montevideo an expected 1.3 goals and Santa Fe an expected 1.0 goals. Peñarol Montevideo have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Santa Fe at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.5%
1:1
13%
0:0
10.3%
0:1
10%
2:0
8.8%
2:1
8.5%
1:2
6.3%
0:2
4.8%
2:2
4.1%
3:0
3.8%
3:1
3.7%
1:3
2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Peñarol Montevideo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Venue Form
Peñarol Montevideo at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Santa Fe Away
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Peñarol Montevideo
L
D
Santa Fe
W
Head to Head
Santa Fe
1 : 1
Penarol
D