1
44%
Home Win
2.26
X
28%
Draw
3.57
2
28%
Away Win
3.62
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
0.97
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Peñarol Montevideo an expected 1.3 goals and Corinthians an expected 1.0 goals. Peñarol Montevideo have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Corinthians at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.5%
1:1
13%
0:0
10.3%
0:1
10%
2:0
8.8%
2:1
8.5%
1:2
6.3%
0:2
4.8%
2:2
4.1%
3:0
3.8%
3:1
3.7%
1:3
2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Corinthians Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Venue Form
Peñarol Montevideo at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Corinthians Away
W0
D3
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Peñarol Montevideo
L
D
Corinthians
D
D
D
Head to Head
Corinthians
2 : 0
Penarol
L
Penarol
4 : 0
Corinthians
L
Corinthians
0 : 2
Penarol
W
