1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
25%
Draw
3.92
2
30%
Away Win
3.29
xG Home
1.50
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Peñarol Montevideo an expected 1.5 goals and Corinthians an expected 1.2 goals. Peñarol Montevideo have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Corinthians at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.1%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.3%
0:0
6.7%
2:2
5.4%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.5%
3:0
3.8%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Corinthians Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Venue Form
Peñarol Montevideo at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Corinthians Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Peñarol Montevideo
L
D
Corinthians
D
D
Head to Head
Corinthians
2 : 0
Penarol
L
Penarol
4 : 0
Corinthians
L
Corinthians
0 : 2
Penarol
W