Paris Saint Germain vs Real Madrid Prediction

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0 – 0
Most Likely Score
Wed, 09 Jul 2025 · FIFA Club World Cup
1 46%
Home Win 2.17
X 36%
Draw 2.78
2 18%
Away Win 5.58
xG Home 0.96
xG Away 0.48
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
BTTS 24%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Paris Saint Germain an expected 1.0 goals and Real Madrid an expected 0.5 goals. Paris Saint Germain have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 36%, and Real Madrid at 18%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 82%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:0 23.7%
1:0 22.7%
0:1 11.4%
1:1 10.9%
2:0 10.9%
2:1 5.2%
3:0 3.5%
0:2 2.7%
1:2 2.6%
3:1 1.7%
2:2 1.3%
4:0 0.8%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Paris Saint Germain Win
Probability 35%
Predicted Odds 2.86
Market Odds 3.04

Team Comparison

Paris Saint Germain Real Madrid
1 League Position 1
6 Points 7
67% Win % 67%
2 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67

Head to Head

09 Mar 2022 UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 3 : 1 Paris Saint Germain
L
15 Feb 2022 UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 1 : 0 Real Madrid
W
26 Nov 2019 UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2 : 2 Paris Saint Germain
D