Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München Prediction

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0 – 0
Most Likely Score
Sat, 05 Jul 2025 · FIFA Club World Cup
1 37%
Home Win 2.68
X 33%
Draw 3.03
2 30%
Away Win 3.36
xG Home 0.96
xG Away 0.82
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
BTTS 35%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Paris Saint Germain an expected 1.0 goals and Bayern München an expected 0.8 goals. Paris Saint Germain have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 33%, and Bayern München at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 74%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:0 16.8%
1:0 16.1%
0:1 13.8%
1:1 13.3%
2:0 7.7%
2:1 6.4%
0:2 5.7%
1:2 5.5%
2:2 2.6%
3:0 2.5%
3:1 2%
0:3 1.6%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Bayern München Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Paris Saint Germain Bayern München
1 League Position 2
6 Points 6
67% Win % 67%
2 Avg Goals Scored 4
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67

Head to Head

26 Nov 2024 UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 1 : 0 Paris Saint Germain
L
08 Mar 2023 UEFA Champions League
Bayern Munich 2 : 0 Paris Saint Germain
L
14 Feb 2023 UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 0 : 1 Bayern Munich
L