1
67%
Home Win
1.5
X
21%
Draw
4.8
2
13%
Away Win
8
xG Home
1.92
xG Away
0.69
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Palmeiras an expected 1.9 goals and FC Porto an expected 0.7 goals. Palmeiras have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and FC Porto at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.2%
2:0
13.6%
1:1
9.7%
2:1
9.3%
3:0
8.7%
0:0
7.4%
3:1
6%
0:1
5.1%
4:0
4.2%
1:2
3.3%
2:2
3.2%
4:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 33% |
| Predicted Odds | 3.03 |
| Market Odds | 3.22 |
Team Comparison
| Palmeiras | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 2 |
| 33% | Win % | 0% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2 |