1
61%
Home Win
1.63
X
23%
Draw
4.28
2
15%
Away Win
6.54
xG Home
1.72
xG Away
0.72
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Palmeiras an expected 1.7 goals and Atletico-MG an expected 0.7 goals. Palmeiras have a 61% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Atletico-MG at 15%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
15%
2:0
12.9%
1:1
10.8%
2:1
9.3%
0:0
8.7%
3:0
7.4%
0:1
6.3%
3:1
5.3%
1:2
3.9%
2:2
3.3%
4:0
3.2%
4:1
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Palmeiras | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 11 |
| 76 | Points | 48 |
| 61% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.74 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 0.87 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Palmeiras at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Atletico-MG Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Palmeiras
W
D
W
Atletico-MG
W
W
L
D
Head to Head
Atletico-MG
2 : 2
Palmeiras
D
Atletico-MG
0 : 3
Palmeiras
W
Palmeiras
3 : 2
Atletico-MG
L
