Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction

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4 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sat, 20 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 77%
Home Win 1.3
X 8%
Draw 12.53
2 8%
Away Win 12.47
xG Home 5.00
xG Away 1.93
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
BTTS 79%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Netherlands an expected 5.0 goals and Sweden an expected 1.9 goals. Netherlands have a 77% win probability, draw stands at 8%, and Sweden at 8%. The most likely exact scoreline is 4–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 90%.

Correct Score Predictions

4:1 4.9%
4:2 4.7%
3:1 3.9%
3:2 3.8%
4:3 3.1%
4:0 2.5%
3:3 2.4%
2:1 2.4%
2:2 2.3%
3:0 2%
4:4 1.5%
2:3 1.5%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Sweden Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Netherlands Sweden
1 League Position 3
7 Points 4
67% Win % 33%
3.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 2.33

Head to Head

10 Oct 2017 World Cup - Qualification Europe
Netherlands 2 : 0 Sweden
W
06 Sep 2016 World Cup - Qualification Europe
Sweden 1 : 1 Netherlands
D