1
77%
Home Win
1.3
X
8%
Draw
12.53
2
8%
Away Win
12.47
xG Home
5.00
xG Away
1.93
Over 2.5 Goals
90%
BTTS
79%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Netherlands an expected 5.0 goals and Sweden an expected 1.9 goals. Netherlands have a 77% win probability, draw stands at 8%, and Sweden at 8%. The most likely exact scoreline is 4–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 90%.
Correct Score Predictions
4:1
4.9%
4:2
4.7%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
3.8%
4:3
3.1%
4:0
2.5%
3:3
2.4%
2:1
2.4%
2:2
2.3%
3:0
2%
4:4
1.5%
2:3
1.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Sweden Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Netherlands | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 4 |
| 67% | Win % | 33% |
| 3.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.33 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2.33 |
Head to Head
Netherlands
2 : 0
Sweden
W
Sweden
1 : 1
Netherlands
D