1
55%
Home Win
1.83
X
19%
Draw
5.22
2
26%
Away Win
3.83
xG Home
2.44
xG Away
1.67
Over 2.5 Goals
78%
BTTS
74%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Netherlands an expected 2.4 goals and Morocco an expected 1.7 goals. Netherlands have a 55% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Morocco at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 78%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:1
8.1%
2:2
6.8%
1:1
6.7%
3:1
6.6%
1:2
5.6%
3:2
5.5%
2:0
4.9%
4:1
4%
1:0
4%
3:0
4%
2:3
3.8%
4:2
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Netherlands Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 55% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.82 |
| Market Odds | 1.93 |
Team Comparison
| Netherlands | Morocco | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 3.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
