Netherlands vs Japan Prediction

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2 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sun, 14 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 49%
Home Win 2.04
X 19%
Draw 5.17
2 31%
Away Win 3.18
xG Home 2.41
xG Away 1.93
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
BTTS 78%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Netherlands an expected 2.4 goals and Japan an expected 1.9 goals. Netherlands have a 49% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Japan at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 81%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:1 7.3%
2:2 7%
1:1 6.1%
3:1 5.9%
1:2 5.8%
3:2 5.7%
2:3 4.5%
2:0 3.8%
1:3 3.8%
3:3 3.6%
4:1 3.5%
4:2 3.4%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Netherlands Win
Probability 50%
Predicted Odds 2
Market Odds 2.13

Team Comparison

Netherlands Japan
1 League Position 2
7 Points 5
67% Win % 33%
3.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Head to Head

19 Jun 2010 World Cup
Netherlands 1 : 0 Japan
W