1
35%
Home Win
2.87
X
27%
Draw
3.74
2
38%
Away Win
2.6
xG Home
1.23
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mirassol an expected 1.2 goals and Palmeiras an expected 1.3 goals. Mirassol have a 35% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Palmeiras at 38%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.7%
0:1
10.3%
1:0
9.7%
1:2
8.3%
0:0
7.9%
2:1
7.8%
0:2
6.7%
2:0
6%
2:2
5.1%
1:3
3.6%
3:1
3.2%
0:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Mirassol | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 2 |
| 67 | Points | 76 |
| 47% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.74 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.87 |
Venue Form
Mirassol at Home
W3
D2
L0
(5 games)
Palmeiras Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Mirassol
W
W
D
W
D
Palmeiras
W
D
W
