Mexico vs South Africa Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Thu, 11 Jun 2026 · World Cup
1 67%
Home Win 1.5
X 26%
Draw 3.87
2 7%
Away Win 13.42
xG Home 1.45
xG Away 0.30
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
BTTS 20%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Mexico an expected 1.4 goals and South Africa an expected 0.3 goals. Mexico have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and South Africa at 7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 74%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 25.2%
2:0 18.2%
0:0 17.4%
3:0 8.8%
1:1 7.6%
2:1 5.5%
0:1 5.2%
4:0 3.2%
3:1 2.6%
1:2 1.1%
4:1 1%
2:2 0.8%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Mexico Win
Probability 33%
Predicted Odds 3.03
Market Odds 3.22

Team Comparison

Mexico South Africa
1 League Position 2
9 Points 4
100% Win % 33%
2 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
0 Avg Goals Conceded 1

Venue Form

Mexico at Home
W1 D0 L0 (1 games)
100% win rate
South Africa Away
W0 D0 L1 (1 games)
0% win rate

Recent Form

Mexico
W
South Africa
L

Head to Head

11 Jun 2010 World Cup
South Africa 1 : 1 Mexico
D