Mexico vs Costa Rica Prediction

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1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Mon, 23 Jun 2025 · CONCACAF Gold Cup
1 57%
Home Win 1.76
X 24%
Draw 4.17
2 19%
Away Win 5.21
xG Home 1.69
xG Away 0.87
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
BTTS 47%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Mexico an expected 1.7 goals and Costa Rica an expected 0.9 goals. Mexico have a 57% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Costa Rica at 19%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 13%
1:1 11.3%
2:0 11%
2:1 9.6%
0:0 7.7%
0:1 6.7%
3:0 6.2%
3:1 5.4%
1:2 4.9%
2:2 4.2%
0:2 2.9%
4:0 2.6%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Mexico Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Mexico Costa Rica
1 League Position 2
7 Points 7
67% Win % 67%
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33

Head to Head

09 Jul 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mexico 2 : 0 Costa Rica
W
30 Jan 2022 World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF
Mexico 0 : 0 Costa Rica
D
05 Sep 2021 World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF
Costa Rica 0 : 1 Mexico
W