1
21%
Home Win
4.69
X
32%
Draw
3.1
2
46%
Away Win
2.16
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
BTTS
31%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mamelodi Sundowns an expected 0.6 goals and Fluminense an expected 1.1 goals. Mamelodi Sundowns have a 21% win probability, draw stands at 32%, and Fluminense at 46%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 75%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
19.3%
0:0
17.6%
1:1
12.4%
1:0
11.3%
0:2
10.6%
1:2
6.8%
2:1
4%
0:3
3.9%
2:0
3.6%
1:3
2.5%
2:2
2.2%
0:4
1.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Mamelodi Sundowns | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 2 |
| 4 | Points | 5 |
| 33% | Win % | 33% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |