Mali vs Senegal Prediction

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0 – 1
Most Likely Score
Fri, 09 Jan 2026 · Africa Cup of Nations
1 9%
Home Win 10.76
X 31%
Draw 3.2
2 59%
Away Win 1.68
xG Home 0.30
xG Away 1.19
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
BTTS 18%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Mali an expected 0.3 goals and Senegal an expected 1.2 goals. Mali have a 9% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and Senegal at 59%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 81%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:1 26.8%
0:0 22.5%
0:2 16%
1:1 8%
1:0 6.7%
0:3 6.3%
1:2 4.8%
1:3 1.9%
0:4 1.9%
2:1 1.2%
2:0 1%
2:2 0.7%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Senegal Win
Probability 50%
Predicted Odds 2
Market Odds 2.13

Team Comparison

Mali Senegal
2 League Position 1
3 Points 7
0% Win % 67%
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.33

Head to Head

26 Mar 2019 Friendlies
Senegal 2 : 1 Mali
L