1
79%
Home Win
1.27
X
10%
Draw
9.79
2
9%
Away Win
11.12
xG Home
3.94
xG Away
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
88%
BTTS
73%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Japan an expected 3.9 goals and Sweden an expected 1.4 goals. Japan have a 79% win probability, draw stands at 10%, and Sweden at 9%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 88%.
Correct Score Predictions
3:1
6.8%
4:1
6.6%
2:1
5.1%
3:2
4.9%
4:2
4.8%
3:0
4.7%
4:0
4.6%
2:2
3.7%
2:0
3.6%
1:1
2.6%
3:3
2.4%
4:3
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Japan Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Japan | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 4 |
| 33% | Win % | 33% |
| 2.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.33 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2.33 |