Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso Prediction

1 – 0
Most Likely Score
Tue, 06 Jan 2026 · Africa Cup of Nations
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Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 1.31
xG Away 0.97
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
BTTS 45%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Ivory Coast an expected 1.3 goals and Burkina Faso an expected 1.0 goals. Ivory Coast have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Burkina Faso at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 13.5%
1:1 13%
0:0 10.3%
0:1 10%
2:0 8.8%
2:1 8.5%
1:2 6.3%
0:2 4.8%
2:2 4.1%
3:0 3.8%
3:1 3.7%
1:3 2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Burkina Faso Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Head to Head

28 Dec 2024 African Nations Championship - Qualification
Burkina Faso 2 : 0 Ivory Coast
L
22 Dec 2024 African Nations Championship - Qualification
Ivory Coast 2 : 0 Burkina Faso
W
19 Nov 2022 Friendlies
Burkina Faso 2 : 1 Ivory Coast
L