1
34%
Home Win
2.96
X
28%
Draw
3.61
2
39%
Away Win
2.59
xG Home
1.15
xG Away
1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Internacional an expected 1.1 goals and Atletico-MG an expected 1.2 goals. Internacional have a 34% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Atletico-MG at 39%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
0:1
11.4%
1:0
10.5%
0:0
9.1%
1:2
8.1%
2:1
7.5%
0:2
7.1%
2:0
6%
2:2
4.7%
1:3
3.4%
0:3
2.9%
3:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atletico-MG Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| Internacional | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 11 |
| 44 | Points | 48 |
| 29% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Internacional at Home
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Atletico-MG Away
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Internacional
D
W
L
W
Atletico-MG
W
W
L
D