1
42%
Home Win
2.39
X
32%
Draw
3.17
2
27%
Away Win
3.74
xG Home
1.08
xG Away
0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
29%
BTTS
37%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Independiente an expected 1.1 goals and Newell’s Old Boys an expected 0.8 goals. Independiente have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 32%, and Newell’s Old Boys at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 71%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.4%
0:0
15.1%
1:1
13.2%
0:1
12.2%
2:0
8.9%
2:1
7.2%
1:2
5.3%
0:2
4.9%
3:0
3.2%
2:2
2.9%
3:1
2.6%
1:3
1.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Independiente Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Venue Form
Independiente at Home
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Newell’s Old Boys Away
W0
D1
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Independiente
W
Newell’s Old Boys
D
