1
42%
Home Win
2.41
X
27%
Draw
3.64
2
31%
Away Win
3.22
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Gremio an expected 1.3 goals and São Paulo FC an expected 1.1 goals. Gremio have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and São Paulo FC at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13%
1:0
11.9%
0:1
9.9%
0:0
9.1%
2:1
8.5%
2:0
7.8%
1:2
7.1%
0:2
5.4%
2:2
4.6%
3:1
3.7%
3:0
3.4%
1:3
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Gremio Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Gremio | São Paulo FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 8 |
| 49 | Points | 51 |
| 34% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.24 |
Venue Form
Gremio at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
São Paulo FC Away
W0
D2
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Gremio
L
W
D
São Paulo FC
L
L
D
D
