1
43%
Home Win
2.35
X
27%
Draw
3.77
2
31%
Away Win
3.24
xG Home
1.39
xG Away
1.14
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Gremio an expected 1.4 goals and Santos an expected 1.1 goals. Gremio have a 43% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Santos at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.6%
1:0
11%
0:1
9.1%
2:1
8.8%
0:0
7.9%
2:0
7.7%
1:2
7.2%
0:2
5.2%
2:2
5%
3:1
4.1%
3:0
3.6%
1:3
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Gremio Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Gremio | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 12 |
| 49 | Points | 47 |
| 34% | Win % | 32% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Gremio at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Santos Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Gremio
L
W
D
Santos
D
D
W
Head to Head
Santos
1 : 1
Gremio
D
Gremio
1 : 0
Santos
L
Santos
2 : 1
Gremio
L