1
32%
Home Win
3.16
X
28%
Draw
3.6
2
41%
Away Win
2.46
xG Home
1.09
xG Away
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Gremio an expected 1.1 goals and Fluminense an expected 1.3 goals. Gremio have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Fluminense at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
0:1
12%
1:0
10.3%
0:0
9.5%
1:2
8.3%
0:2
7.6%
2:1
7.1%
2:0
5.6%
2:2
4.5%
1:3
3.5%
0:3
3.2%
3:1
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Gremio | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 5 |
| 49 | Points | 64 |
| 34% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.03 |
Venue Form
Gremio at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Fluminense Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Gremio
L
W
D
Fluminense
L
W
Head to Head
Fluminense
2 : 1
Gremio
L
Gremio
1 : 2
Fluminense
W
Fluminense
1 : 0
Gremio
L
