1
87%
Home Win
1.15
X
9%
Draw
11.59
2
4%
Away Win
28.41
xG Home
3.21
xG Away
0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
72%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Germany an expected 3.2 goals and Paraguay an expected 0.6 goals. Germany have a 87% win probability, draw stands at 9%, and Paraguay at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 3–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 72%.
Correct Score Predictions
3:0
12.8%
2:0
12%
4:0
10.3%
1:0
7.4%
3:1
7.1%
2:1
6.6%
4:1
5.7%
1:1
4.1%
0:0
2.3%
3:2
1.9%
2:2
1.8%
4:2
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Germany Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Germany | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 6 | Points | 4 |
| 67% | Win % | 33% |
| 3.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.67 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |