1
40%
Home Win
2.5
X
28%
Draw
3.6
2
32%
Away Win
3.1
xG Home
1.26
xG Away
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Genoa an expected 1.3 goals and Fiorentina an expected 1.1 goals. Genoa have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Fiorentina at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
11.8%
0:1
10.3%
0:0
9.4%
2:1
8.3%
2:0
7.5%
1:2
7.2%
0:2
5.7%
2:2
4.6%
3:1
3.5%
3:0
3.1%
1:3
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Genoa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Genoa | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 15 |
| 41 | Points | 42 |
| 26% | Win % | 24% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 1.34 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Genoa at Home
W0
D0
L1
(1 games)
Fiorentina Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Genoa
L
Fiorentina
L
D
