1
58%
Home Win
1.73
X
26%
Draw
3.91
2
17%
Away Win
5.98
xG Home
1.54
xG Away
0.69
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fluminense an expected 1.5 goals and Vitoria an expected 0.7 goals. Fluminense have a 58% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Vitoria at 17%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.5%
2:0
12.7%
1:1
11.4%
0:0
10.7%
2:1
8.8%
0:1
7.4%
3:0
6.5%
3:1
4.5%
1:2
4%
2:2
3.1%
0:2
2.6%
4:0
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 58% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.72 |
| Market Odds | 1.83 |
Team Comparison
| Fluminense | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 15 |
| 64 | Points | 45 |
| 50% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.92 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Fluminense at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Vitoria Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Fluminense
D
D
W
Vitoria
D
L
