1
28%
Home Win
3.59
X
28%
Draw
3.58
2
44%
Away Win
2.27
xG Home
0.98
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
46%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fluminense an expected 1.0 goals and Palmeiras an expected 1.3 goals. Fluminense have a 28% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Palmeiras at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.3%
1:1
13%
0:0
10.2%
1:0
9.9%
0:2
8.7%
1:2
8.5%
2:1
6.4%
2:0
4.9%
2:2
4.2%
0:3
3.8%
1:3
3.7%
3:1
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Palmeiras Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Fluminense | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 2 |
| 64 | Points | 76 |
| 50% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.74 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.87 |
Venue Form
Fluminense at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Palmeiras Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Fluminense
D
D
W
Palmeiras
W
D
W
