1
37%
Home Win
2.68
X
33%
Draw
3.03
2
30%
Away Win
3.36
xG Home
0.96
xG Away
0.82
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS
35%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fluminense an expected 1.0 goals and Chelsea an expected 0.8 goals. Fluminense have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 33%, and Chelsea at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 74%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
16.8%
1:0
16.1%
0:1
13.8%
1:1
13.3%
2:0
7.7%
2:1
6.4%
0:2
5.7%
1:2
5.5%
2:2
2.6%
3:0
2.5%
3:1
2%
0:3
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Fluminense | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 6 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |