1
80%
Home Win
1.25
X
14%
Draw
7.06
2
6%
Away Win
17.7
xG Home
2.40
xG Away
0.48
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
35%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Flamengo an expected 2.4 goals and Vitoria an expected 0.5 goals. Flamengo have a 80% win probability, draw stands at 14%, and Vitoria at 6%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
16.2%
1:0
13.4%
3:0
12.9%
4:0
7.8%
2:1
7.8%
1:1
6.5%
3:1
6.2%
0:0
5.6%
4:1
3.7%
0:1
2.7%
2:2
1.9%
1:2
1.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Flamengo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 80% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.25 |
| Market Odds | 1.33 |
Team Comparison
| Flamengo | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 15 |
| 79 | Points | 45 |
| 61% | Win % | 29% |
| 2.05 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.92 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Flamengo at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Vitoria Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Flamengo
D
W
Vitoria
D
L
