1
52%
Home Win
1.94
X
27%
Draw
3.72
2
21%
Away Win
4.66
xG Home
1.44
xG Away
0.82
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Flamengo an expected 1.4 goals and Chelsea an expected 0.8 goals. Flamengo have a 52% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Chelsea at 21%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
15%
1:1
12.3%
2:0
10.8%
0:0
10.4%
2:1
8.9%
0:1
8.6%
3:0
5.2%
1:2
5.1%
3:1
4.3%
2:2
3.7%
0:2
3.5%
4:0
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Flamengo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 33% |
| Predicted Odds | 3.03 |
| Market Odds | 3.22 |
Team Comparison
| Flamengo | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 67% | Win % | 67% |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 0.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |