1
36%
Home Win
2.78
X
24%
Draw
4.09
2
40%
Away Win
2.53
xG Home
1.44
xG Away
1.52
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC St. Gallen an expected 1.4 goals and FC Thun an expected 1.5 goals. FC St. Gallen have a 36% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and FC Thun at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.3%
1:2
8.6%
2:1
8.2%
0:1
7.9%
1:0
7.5%
2:2
6.2%
0:2
6%
2:0
5.4%
0:0
5.2%
1:3
4.4%
3:1
3.9%
2:3
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Thun Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| FC St. Gallen | FC Thun | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 1 |
| 56 | Points | 71 |
| 52% | Win % | 72% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.25 |
| 1.19 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.13 |
