1
54%
Home Win
1.84
X
19%
Draw
5.17
2
26%
Away Win
3.83
xG Home
2.40
xG Away
1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
77%
BTTS
73%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Porto an expected 2.4 goals and Al Ahly an expected 1.6 goals. FC Porto have a 54% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Al Ahly at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 77%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:1
8.3%
1:1
6.9%
2:2
6.8%
3:1
6.6%
1:2
5.7%
3:2
5.5%
2:0
5%
1:0
4.2%
3:0
4%
4:1
4%
2:3
3.7%
4:2
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| FC Porto | Al Ahly | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 2 |
| 0% | Win % | 0% |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.33 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2 |